Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 17.726586 20.215540 22.896143 25.993822 29.470747 33.248737 37.660556
2025-01-19 13.254201 16.457013 20.175104 24.794937 30.364839 36.846261 44.941535
2025-01-26 11.646315 15.260691 19.659260 25.377043 32.581026 41.321209 52.689678
2025-02-02 10.454796 14.369688 19.336568 26.053632 34.846806 45.906121 60.800000
2025-02-09 9.227046 13.233616 18.508091 25.894154 35.892404 48.867141 66.873602
2025-02-16 8.153888 12.165417 17.629760 25.530607 36.557661 51.279669 72.272849
2025-02-23 7.415376 11.469558 17.166072 25.644550 37.807588 54.464041 78.796452
2025-03-02 6.838968 10.939463 16.869586 25.935153 39.273392 57.968898 85.888107
2025-03-09 6.277108 10.369511 16.453288 25.993562 40.370248 60.967797 92.370046
2025-03-16 5.705186 9.725370 15.863924 25.730023 40.944225 63.204444 97.818361
2025-03-23 5.318205 9.334494 15.621274 25.957990 42.239242 66.523507 104.971635
2025-03-30 5.101609 9.198370 15.758895 26.772226 44.457057 71.299287 114.495798
2025-04-06 4.663556 8.661972 15.227661 26.503757 44.996091 73.602300 120.459120
2025-04-13 4.065702 7.796218 14.088704 25.161340 43.730647 73.038720 121.948451
2025-04-20 3.886493 7.650800 14.141749 25.792681 45.690802 77.612050 131.691862
2025-04-27 3.728278 7.528012 14.220753 26.465292 47.744931 82.417494 142.007552
2025-05-04 3.452345 7.160559 13.840146 26.308171 48.375465 84.920031 148.673117
2025-05-11 3.170795 6.756125 13.360771 25.937774 48.605214 86.751851 154.288849
2025-05-18 2.982374 6.515917 13.161978 26.053890 49.680323 90.032238 162.445900
2025-05-25 2.832521 6.338995 13.066611 26.348562 51.079154 93.911701 171.765128
2025-06-01 2.664880 6.110399 12.854905 26.407879 52.047389 97.078744 179.977251
2025-06-08 2.472604 5.812585 12.486032 26.140478 52.392895 99.158508 186.365582
2025-06-15 2.351020 5.654703 12.380837 26.371775 53.669839 102.927496 195.859446